Weekly Market Outlook: January 26 – 30 (DXY, Majors, Gold, BTC, and SPX500)

The narrative for this week shifts significantly as the US Dollar Index (DXY) breaks structure to the downside. Our focus for the week ahead is identifying “correction entries”—waiting for price to pull back into key levels before joining the new trends. While Forex and Equities look to capitalize on Dollar weakness, Bitcoin presents a unique contrarian bearish setup.

Here is the breakdown of the charts we are monitoring:

Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my Toolkit

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Bias (Correction First)

The DXY has shifted momentum and is looking heavy. However, we do not chase price at the lows.

The Setup: Price has dropped aggressively. We are strictly waiting for a upward correction into the bearish Fair Value Gaps (FVG) above. Outlook:

• The Plan: We need to see a rally into premium pricing to validate a short entry.
• Discipline Check: As noted on the chart, “If no correction, it’s not my trade.” We will sit on our hands if price simply melts down without offering an entry.
• Target: Once the correction completes, we anticipate a continuation of the down move.

Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my Toolkit

EURUSD – Bullish Bias (Correction then Expansion)

The Euro has shifted structure, aligning with the weakness we are seeing in the Dollar Index. The bias has flipped to bullish, but we need a better entry price before committing to the trade.

The Setup: Price has broken structure to the upside, confirming bullish momentum. However, we are currently “looking for a correction downside first.”

Outlook:

• The Trade: We are waiting for price to retrace into the bullish Fair Value Gaps (green zones) marked below. This “dip” will provide the discount entry we need.
• The Projection: Once the correction finishes, we expect an impulsive move up.
• Caution: Be aware that “after the up move,” we should anticipate a “bigger corrective structure,” so take profits into strength rather than holding indefinitely.

Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my Toolkit

GBPUSD – Bullish Bias (Awaiting Discount)

Similar to the Euro, the British Pound has broken out, but chasing the current high is not the plan. Patience is required to catch the next leg higher.

The Setup: The market has left behind clear bullish inefficiencies (FVGs) during the recent rally. We are looking for price to respect these zones on a pullback.

Outlook:

• The Trade: The plan is to wait for the “correction downside first.” We are looking for price to tap into the discount arrays (green FVG) to fuel the next move up.
• The Projection: We anticipate a rally from these lower levels.
• Long-term View: Just like EURUSD, once this next leg up is complete, be prepared for a shift in behavior as we “look for a bigger corrective structure” to develop.

Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my Toolkit

Gold (XAUUSD) – Bullish Bias (Continuous Momentum)

Gold remains the standout performer, showing no signs of slowing down.

The Setup: The trend is clear: Up. The chart shows a clean staircase of higher highs and higher lows, leaving behind multiple unmitigated bullish FVGs. Outlook:

• We are expecting a “continuous up move.”
• Any intraday dips into immediate support levels are potential buy opportunities. We are ignoring sell signals and focusing purely on trend continuation.

Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my Toolkit

S&P 500 (SPX500) – Bullish Bias (ATH inbound)

The equity market is showing strength, aligning with the “risk-on” flows suggested by a weaker Dollar.

The Setup: Price is consolidating slightly but maintaining bullish structure. Outlook:

• We are expecting the index to break the All-Time High (ATH) again.
• Bullish Order Blocks and FVGs below current price are key areas to watch for support if we get a minor pullback early in the week.

Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my Toolkit

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) – Bearish Bias (The Divergence)

While the rest of the market seems to be betting against the Dollar, Bitcoin is showing weakness.

The Setup: Unlike the equities market, BTC has broken lower and left behind bearish inefficiencies (Red FVGs). Outlook:

• We are looking for a down move.
• Price is struggling to reclaim higher levels, and the weight of the overhead supply is likely to push price lower toward liquidity pools below. This suggests a potential decoupling from the SPX500 correlation this week.

The Dollar is finally correcting, opening up long opportunities on EURUSD and GBPUSD—but patience is key. We are waiting for pullbacks before pulling the trigger. Meanwhile, Gold and SPX500 look ready to crush new highs, while Bitcoin flashes a warning sign.