<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Mustafijur Rahman</title>
	<atom:link href="https://mustafijur.com/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>https://mustafijur.com</link>
	<description>Risk First. Profit Second</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 08 Feb 2026 05:43:54 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en-US</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>
	hourly	</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>
	1	</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0</generator>

<image>
	<url>https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/cropped-MR-logo-32x32.png</url>
	<title>Mustafijur Rahman</title>
	<link>https://mustafijur.com</link>
	<width>32</width>
	<height>32</height>
</image> 
	<item>
		<title>Weekly Market Outlook: February 9 – 13 (DXY, CPI, Majors, Gold, &#038; BTC)</title>
		<link>https://mustafijur.com/weekly-market-outlook-february-9-13-dxy-cpi-majors-gold-btc/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mustafijur]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Feb 2026 05:43:54 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Weekly Outlook]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Outlook]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mustafijur.com/?p=3941</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The Inflation Gauntlet: Trap or Reversal? Following the NFP shockwave, the market narrative shifts this week from &#8220;Labor Weakness&#8221; to &#8220;Inflation Reality.&#8221; With the US Dollar Index (DXY) attempting a recovery, we are entering a critical &#8220;Inflation Gauntlet&#8221; that will decide if this bounce is a genuine structural shift or a classic &#8220;Dead Cat Bounce&#8221; [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Inflation Gauntlet: Trap or Reversal?</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Following the NFP shockwave, the market narrative shifts this week from &#8220;Labor Weakness&#8221; to &#8220;Inflation Reality.&#8221; With the US Dollar Index (DXY) attempting a recovery, we are entering a critical &#8220;Inflation Gauntlet&#8221; that will decide if this bounce is a genuine structural shift or a classic &#8220;Dead Cat Bounce&#8221; designed to trap early bulls.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Week Ahead:</strong></p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Tuesday (Feb 10):</strong> US Retail Sales will test the consumer strength narrative.</li>



<li><strong>Wednesday (Feb 11):</strong> The <strong>US CPI</strong> print is the &#8220;Main Event.&#8221; Expect Smart Money to manipulate price action leading up to this release.</li>



<li><strong>Thursday (Feb 12):</strong> UK GDP data will likely trigger volatility in Sterling pairs.</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For SMC and Wave traders, the setup is clear: waiting for the <strong>Liquidity Sweep</strong> before the news drops is the only way to avoid the noise.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="1024" height="624" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/DXY_2026-02-08_00-58-57_3ce04-1024x624.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3943" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/DXY_2026-02-08_00-58-57_3ce04-1024x624.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/DXY_2026-02-08_00-58-57_3ce04-300x183.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/DXY_2026-02-08_00-58-57_3ce04-768x468.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/DXY_2026-02-08_00-58-57_3ce04-1536x936.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/DXY_2026-02-08_00-58-57_3ce04-2048x1249.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#8ed1fc" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>1. DXY (US Dollar Index): The &#8220;Dead Cat&#8221; Test</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Dollar is currently testing the <strong>98.00</strong> psychological level, but the momentum is unconvincing.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>SMC Analysis:</strong> The recent push up looks like a <strong>Mitigation</strong> of the bearish Order Block (OB) formed in late January. We are watching the <strong>98.20 – 98.50</strong> zone as a potential &#8220;Bull Trap.&#8221; If price fails to close above this Supply Zone, we expect a violent rejection targeting the <strong>Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL)</strong> below 96.50.</li>



<li><strong>Wave Analysis:</strong> This move counts as a corrective <strong>Wave B</strong> (or Wave 2) within a larger bearish cycle. The internal structure suggests an A-B-C zigzag is completing. A reversal near 98.50 would confirm the start of a damaging <strong>Wave C</strong> lower.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="624" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/EURUSD_2026-02-08_00-56-02_364be-1024x624.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3944" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/EURUSD_2026-02-08_00-56-02_364be-1024x624.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/EURUSD_2026-02-08_00-56-02_364be-300x183.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/EURUSD_2026-02-08_00-56-02_364be-768x468.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/EURUSD_2026-02-08_00-56-02_364be-1536x936.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/EURUSD_2026-02-08_00-56-02_364be-2048x1249.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#8ed1fc" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>2. EUR/USD: Defending the 1.1800 Fortress</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Euro has pulled back to the <strong>1.1800</strong> institutional level, a zone that has acted as a pivot for months.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>SMC Analysis:</strong> Price has tapped into a H4 <strong>Demand Zone</strong> at 1.1800 – 1.1820. We are looking for a <strong>Change of Character (CHoCH)</strong> on the 15-minute timeframe to confirm that institutions are accumulating long positions here. A failure to hold 1.1780 would invalidate this setup and expose the 1.1700 liquidity pool.</li>



<li><strong>Wave Analysis:</strong> We view this pullback as a standard <strong>Wave 4</strong> correction. As long as the 1.1750 overlap territory holds, the primary forecast remains a bullish <strong>Wave 5</strong> expansion targeting <strong>1.2100+</strong> later in the month.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="624" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GBPUSD_2026-02-08_00-57-32_1b464-1024x624.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3945" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GBPUSD_2026-02-08_00-57-32_1b464-1024x624.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GBPUSD_2026-02-08_00-57-32_1b464-300x183.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GBPUSD_2026-02-08_00-57-32_1b464-768x468.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GBPUSD_2026-02-08_00-57-32_1b464-1536x936.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GBPUSD_2026-02-08_00-57-32_1b464-2048x1249.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#8ed1fc" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>3. GBP/USD: The Consolidation Trap</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Cable is trapped in a tight range near <strong>1.3600</strong>, consolidating after its January surge.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>SMC Analysis:</strong> The pair is building a massive &#8220;Inducement&#8221; pattern. Retail traders are being lured into early shorts, but the <strong>Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL)</strong> above 1.3750 remains untouched. We expect a &#8220;stop hunt&#8221; spike <em>above</em> 1.3750 (likely on UK GDP news) to grab liquidity before the real move happens.</li>



<li><strong>Wave Analysis:</strong> The structure is complex, likely a <strong>Triangle</strong> or <strong>Flat Correction (Wave 4)</strong>. The 1.3550 level is the &#8220;line in the sand.&#8221; A bounce here supports a final thrust toward <strong>1.3800</strong> to complete the larger impulse sequence.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="624" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/XAUUSD_2026-02-08_01-02-54_bea35-1024x624.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3946" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/XAUUSD_2026-02-08_01-02-54_bea35-1024x624.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/XAUUSD_2026-02-08_01-02-54_bea35-300x183.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/XAUUSD_2026-02-08_01-02-54_bea35-768x468.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/XAUUSD_2026-02-08_01-02-54_bea35-1536x936.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/XAUUSD_2026-02-08_01-02-54_bea35-2048x1249.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#8ed1fc" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>4. Gold (XAU/USD): The &#8220;Regular Flat&#8221; Completion</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Gold has been correcting aggressively, but the structure suggests this is a pause, not a reversal. The market is setting up a classic <strong>Regular Flat</strong> correction pattern.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>SMC Analysis:</strong> Price is reacting off a H4 <strong>Fair Value Gap (FVG)</strong> and Demand Zone. We are seeing early signs of accumulation. The &#8220;Smart Money&#8221; objective here is to mitigate the open orders in the discount array before pushing price back up to clear the <strong>Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL)</strong> residing above the $5,200 level.</li>



<li><strong>Wave Analysis:</strong> As noted on the chart, we are likely completing a <strong>Wave 4</strong> &#8220;Regular Flat.&#8221; The recent drop was the C-leg of this flat. We are now positioning for the start of an impulsive <strong>Wave 5</strong>, targeting a move back toward the highs to complete the larger structure.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="624" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTCUSDT_2026-02-08_01-01-25_2d92a-1024x624.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3947" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTCUSDT_2026-02-08_01-01-25_2d92a-1024x624.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTCUSDT_2026-02-08_01-01-25_2d92a-300x183.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTCUSDT_2026-02-08_01-01-25_2d92a-768x468.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTCUSDT_2026-02-08_01-01-25_2d92a-1536x936.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTCUSDT_2026-02-08_01-01-25_2d92a-2048x1249.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#8ed1fc" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>5. BTC/USDT: One Last Flush</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Bitcoin remains heavy, and the chart signals that the correction isn&#8217;t quite over. We are looking for a <strong>&#8220;Down-to-Up&#8221;</strong> sequence.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>SMC Analysis:</strong> There is significant <strong>Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL)</strong> resting below the recent consolidation lows (around $65k &#8211; $66k). The institutional play here is likely a &#8220;stop run&#8221; into the deep Discount Zone (marked by the lower green FVG around $60k-$62k). Once that liquidity is grabbed, look for a sharp rejection and a <strong>Change of Character (CHoCH)</strong> to signal the true reversal.</li>



<li><strong>Wave Analysis:</strong> We are in the final stages of a complex correction (likely a W-X-Y or A-B-C). The current leg down is the final &#8220;washout&#8221; required to reset sentiment. We need this lower low to complete the structure before the next major bullish cycle begins.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="624" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SPX500_2026-02-08_01-04-07_a68bd-1024x624.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3948" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SPX500_2026-02-08_01-04-07_a68bd-1024x624.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SPX500_2026-02-08_01-04-07_a68bd-300x183.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SPX500_2026-02-08_01-04-07_a68bd-768x468.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SPX500_2026-02-08_01-04-07_a68bd-1536x936.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SPX500_2026-02-08_01-04-07_a68bd-2048x1249.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#8ed1fc" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>6. SPX 500: The &#8220;Buy the Dip&#8221; Setup</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The S&amp;P 500 is offering a textbook trend continuation setup. After a healthy correction, the index is preparing for the next leg higher.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>SMC Analysis:</strong> Price is retracing into a premium <strong>Demand Zone</strong> (Green FVG). This is a high-probability area for bulls to defend. We expect price to dip into this zone to &#8220;refuel&#8221; before attacking the <strong>Equal Highs (EQH)</strong> above 7,000.</li>



<li><strong>Wave Analysis:</strong> This pullback counts clearly as a corrective wave within a strong uptrend. Once this corrective substructure is finished in the demand zone, the path of least resistance is up, targeting fresh all-time highs.</li>
</ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Conclusion: The &#8220;Inflation Gauntlet&#8221; Strategy</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">As we head into the week of <strong>February 9 – 13</strong>, the market is at a decisive pivot point. The <strong>CPI release on Wednesday</strong> will be the primary engine for volatility, likely triggering the final &#8220;liquidity flushes&#8221; we see in the charts for Bitcoin and DXY.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For the SMC trader, patience is your edge this week. <strong>Gold and SPX500</strong> are setting up for bullish continuation after their corrections, while <strong>Bitcoin</strong> demands one final &#8220;washout&#8221; to trap eager early buyers. The DXY remains the key indicator—if it fails at the 98.20 Supply Zone, expect the &#8220;Risk-On&#8221; assets (Gold, BTC, Equities) to fly. <strong>Do not chase the initial move; wait for the liquidity sweep.</strong></p>



<div class="wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained">
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>DISCLAIMER: FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The information, analysis, and charts presented in this “Weekly Market Outlook” are strictly for&nbsp;<strong>educational and informational purposes only</strong>. They do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a signal to buy or sell any financial instrument.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Risk Warning:</strong>&nbsp;Trading Forex, Commodities, Indices, and other financial instruments involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you as well as for you. You should be aware of all the risks associated with financial market trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>No Liability:</strong>&nbsp;The author accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk.</p>
</div>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Weekly Market Outlook: February 3 – 6 (DXY, Majors, Gold, BTC, and SPX500)</title>
		<link>https://mustafijur.com/weekly-market-outlook-february-3-6-dxy-majors-gold-btc-and-spx500/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mustafijur]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Feb 2026 06:47:37 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Weekly Outlook]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Outlook]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mustafijur.com/?p=3930</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[As we enter the first full week of February 2026, the market is navigating extreme volatility triggered by a shifting US Dollar narrative and a dense central bank calendar. For SMC and Wave practitioners, this week is about identifying where Smart Money is hunting for liquidity before the massive Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release on Friday. [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">As we enter the first full week of February 2026, the market is navigating extreme volatility triggered by a shifting US Dollar narrative and a dense central bank calendar. For SMC and Wave practitioners, this week is about identifying where <strong>Smart Money</strong> is hunting for liquidity before the massive <strong>Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)</strong> release on Friday.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="624" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/DXY_2026-02-01_12-25-27_36459-1024x624.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3931" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/DXY_2026-02-01_12-25-27_36459-1024x624.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/DXY_2026-02-01_12-25-27_36459-300x183.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/DXY_2026-02-01_12-25-27_36459-768x468.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/DXY_2026-02-01_12-25-27_36459-1536x936.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/DXY_2026-02-01_12-25-27_36459-2048x1249.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#8ed1fc" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>DXY (US Dollar Index): The Bearish Flow</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The US Dollar has continued its decline after a weak performance in late 2025.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>SMC Analysis:</strong> The DXY is currently grappling with a structural shift. Watch for a <strong>Liquidity Sweep</strong> of the 96.65–96.85 resistance zone. If price fails to hold this &#8220;Supply Zone,&#8221; expect a move toward the internal liquidity pools at 94.60.</li>



<li><strong>Wave Analysis:</strong> We are likely seeing a corrective move following a sharp January drop. A failure to break 97.00 would confirm the next impulsive wave lower.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="624" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/EURUSD_2026-02-01_12-26-35_18ff6-1024x624.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3932" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/EURUSD_2026-02-01_12-26-35_18ff6-1024x624.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/EURUSD_2026-02-01_12-26-35_18ff6-300x183.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/EURUSD_2026-02-01_12-26-35_18ff6-768x468.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/EURUSD_2026-02-01_12-26-35_18ff6-1536x936.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/EURUSD_2026-02-01_12-26-35_18ff6-2048x1249.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#8ed1fc" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>EUR/USD: Testing the 1.2000 Barrier</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">EUR/USD spiked to approximately <strong>1.2083</strong> last week before returning toward the <strong>1.1850</strong> level.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>SMC Analysis:</strong> The pair recently broke out of a long-term range (1.1470–1.1830). We are now looking for a <strong>Mitigation</strong> of the &#8220;Demand Zone&#8221; near 1.1800–1.1850 before a potential continuation toward the next <strong>Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL)</strong> targets at 1.2260.</li>



<li><strong>Wave Analysis:</strong> The recent surge followed by a pullback suggests we are in a <strong>Wave 4</strong> consolidation. A successful hold of 1.1850 could trigger the <strong>Wave 5</strong> extension toward 1.2350.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="624" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GBPUSD_2026-02-01_12-27-13_518b3-1024x624.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3933" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GBPUSD_2026-02-01_12-27-13_518b3-1024x624.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GBPUSD_2026-02-01_12-27-13_518b3-300x183.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GBPUSD_2026-02-01_12-27-13_518b3-768x468.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GBPUSD_2026-02-01_12-27-13_518b3-1536x936.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/GBPUSD_2026-02-01_12-27-13_518b3-2048x1249.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#8ed1fc" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>GBP/USD &amp; GBP/JPY: Central Bank Volatility</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The <strong>Bank of England (BoE)</strong> meeting on <strong>Thursday, February 5</strong>, is the primary driver here.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>SMC Analysis:</strong> Markets expect the BoE to remain on hold at <strong>3.75%</strong>. Look for a <strong>Liquidity Grab</strong> around the 1.2750 (GBP/USD) or 214.80 (GBP/JPY) levels during the announcement.</li>



<li><strong>Wave Analysis:</strong> For GBP/USD, price action remains sideways. A hawkish hold could spark an impulsive break of recent highs, while a dovish tone may lead to a deeper corrective <strong>C-wave</strong> toward 1.2550.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="624" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDJPY_2026-02-01_12-29-03_69ca8-1024x624.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3934" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDJPY_2026-02-01_12-29-03_69ca8-1024x624.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDJPY_2026-02-01_12-29-03_69ca8-300x183.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDJPY_2026-02-01_12-29-03_69ca8-768x468.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDJPY_2026-02-01_12-29-03_69ca8-1536x936.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/USDJPY_2026-02-01_12-29-03_69ca8-2048x1249.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#8ed1fc" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>USD/JPY: The Intervention Zone</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Pair of the Week has faced a &#8220;thunderous smack lower&#8221; after hitting highs above 159.00 in late January.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>SMC View:</strong> We are currently in a high-alert <strong>Liquidity Grab</strong> phase. Markets are spooked by coordinated &#8220;rate checks&#8221; and potential intervention rumors involving both the BoJ and US Treasury. Price is currently hovering near <strong>153.30</strong>, which many institutions view as &#8220;oversold&#8221;.</li>



<li><strong>Wave View:</strong> The recent dive from 159.00 to 153.00 appears to be a sharp <strong>Wave A</strong> of a corrective cycle. We expect a <strong>Wave B</strong> relief rally toward the <strong>155.00–156.60</strong> supply zone before the final <strong>Wave C</strong> leg lower.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="624" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/XAUUSD_2026-02-01_12-30-39_6eb55-1024x624.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3935" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/XAUUSD_2026-02-01_12-30-39_6eb55-1024x624.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/XAUUSD_2026-02-01_12-30-39_6eb55-300x183.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/XAUUSD_2026-02-01_12-30-39_6eb55-768x468.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/XAUUSD_2026-02-01_12-30-39_6eb55-1536x936.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/XAUUSD_2026-02-01_12-30-39_6eb55-2048x1249.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#8ed1fc" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Gold (XAU/USD): The &#8220;Flash Crash&#8221; Correction</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">After a meteoric 30% yearly run that saw Gold touch all-time highs near <strong>$5,600</strong>, the metal suffered its largest single-day loss on record this past Friday.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>SMC View:</strong> A massive <strong>Liquidity Sweep</strong> occurred at the highs. We are now monitoring the <strong>Major Psychological Pivot</strong> at <strong>$5,000–$5,100</strong>. A close below $5,100 could signal that the Smart Money has finished its distribution phase, putting the entire 2026 bull run at risk.</li>



<li><strong>Wave View:</strong> Technically, the &#8220;near-term high&#8221; is likely in place. We are looking for price to stabilize around the <strong>$4,780</strong> (61.8% retracement) level to determine if the long-term <strong>Uptrend</strong> remains viable.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="624" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SPX500_2026-02-01_12-31-55_48fba-1024x624.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3936" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SPX500_2026-02-01_12-31-55_48fba-1024x624.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SPX500_2026-02-01_12-31-55_48fba-300x183.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SPX500_2026-02-01_12-31-55_48fba-768x468.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SPX500_2026-02-01_12-31-55_48fba-1536x936.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SPX500_2026-02-01_12-31-55_48fba-2048x1249.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#8ed1fc" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>SPX 500: Navigating the Tech-Driven Volatility</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Equity markets have been heavily influenced by high-tech earnings and the broader <strong>AI-driven capex boom</strong>.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>SMC View:</strong> The S&amp;P 500 is showing a &#8220;broadening leadership,&#8221; moving away from extreme concentration in a few tech giants. Watch the <strong>Fair Value Gaps (FVG)</strong> left by the recent Nasdaq-led surge.</li>



<li><strong>Fundamental Bias:</strong> While tech funds have performed well, broader indices are under pressure from geopolitical headlines and the &#8220;Greenland&#8221; diplomatic friction affecting USD stability.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="624" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTCUSDT_2026-02-01_12-29-52_57075-1024x624.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3937" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTCUSDT_2026-02-01_12-29-52_57075-1024x624.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTCUSDT_2026-02-01_12-29-52_57075-300x183.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTCUSDT_2026-02-01_12-29-52_57075-768x468.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTCUSDT_2026-02-01_12-29-52_57075-1536x936.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BTCUSDT_2026-02-01_12-29-52_57075-2048x1249.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#8ed1fc" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>BTC/USDT: The Breakdown Stage</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Bitcoin enters February facing significant bearish pressure after a lackluster January.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Bearish Continuation:</strong> BTC has recently broken below the lower trendline of a &#8220;bear flag,&#8221; signaling a strong bearish continuation setup.</li>



<li><strong>Liquidity Hunt:</strong> The recent breakdown has moved price through key support levels. Smart Money is likely targeting the <strong>$70,000 zone</strong> as the next major pool of &#8220;Sell-Side Liquidity&#8221;.</li>



<li><strong>Demand Zone:</strong> Look for a potential &#8220;reclamation&#8221; attempt near the <strong>$88,321</strong> level, though bulls must first overcome resistance at <strong>$89,241</strong> to prove strength.</li>



<li><strong>Corrective Cycle:</strong> The current price action aligns with a <strong>Wave C</strong> (corrective) impulse lower.</li>



<li><strong>Targeting the Floor:</strong> If the $70,000 downside target is reached, it could represent the completion of this corrective phase before any meaningful new bullish impulse begins.</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">s we enter the abbreviated trading week of <strong>February 3–6</strong>, the market is primed for significant structural realignments driven by a weakening US Dollar and high-stakes central bank liquidity. With the <strong>DXY</strong> showing clear bearish flow and <strong>Bitcoin</strong> threatening a deeper breakdown toward $70k, the institutional bias favors patience—waiting for price to mitigate key &#8220;Discount&#8221; zones rather than chasing initial moves. Traders should treat the <strong>BoE rate decision</strong> and Friday’s <strong>NFP</strong> as the primary volatility engines, looking for <strong>liquidity sweeps</strong> on Gold and Majors to confirm the next valid <strong>Wave</strong> impulses before committing capital in this highly reactive environment.</p>



<div class="wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained">
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>DISCLAIMER: FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The information, analysis, and charts presented in this “Weekly Market Outlook” are strictly for&nbsp;<strong>educational and informational purposes only</strong>. They do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a signal to buy or sell any financial instrument.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Risk Warning:</strong>&nbsp;Trading Forex, Commodities, Indices, and other financial instruments involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you as well as for you. You should be aware of all the risks associated with financial market trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>No Liability:</strong>&nbsp;The author accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk.</p>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Weekly Market Outlook: January 26 – 30 (DXY, Majors, Gold, BTC, and SPX500)</title>
		<link>https://mustafijur.com/weekly-market-outlook-january-26-30-dxy-majors-gold-btc-and-spx500/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mustafijur]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Jan 2026 08:22:43 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Weekly Outlook]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mustafijur.com/?p=3921</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The narrative for this week shifts significantly as the US Dollar Index (DXY) breaks structure to the downside. Our focus for the week ahead is identifying &#8220;correction entries&#8221;—waiting for price to pull back into key levels before joining the new trends. While Forex and Equities look to capitalize on Dollar weakness, Bitcoin presents a unique [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The narrative for this week shifts significantly as the US Dollar Index (DXY) breaks structure to the downside. Our focus for the week ahead is identifying &#8220;correction entries&#8221;—waiting for price to pull back into key levels before joining the new trends. While Forex and Equities look to capitalize on Dollar weakness, Bitcoin presents a unique contrarian bearish setup.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Here is the breakdown of the charts we are monitoring:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-25_13-34-04_c5cc1-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3922" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-25_13-34-04_c5cc1-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-25_13-34-04_c5cc1-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-25_13-34-04_c5cc1-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-25_13-34-04_c5cc1-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-25_13-34-04_c5cc1-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my&nbsp;<strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark>Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US Dollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Bias (Correction First)</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The DXY has shifted momentum and is looking heavy. However, we do not chase price at the lows.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> Price has dropped aggressively. We are strictly waiting for a <strong>upward correction</strong> into the bearish Fair Value Gaps (FVG) above. <strong>Outlook:</strong></p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>The Plan:</strong> We need to see a rally into premium pricing to validate a short entry.</li>



<li><strong>Discipline Check:</strong> As noted on the chart, &#8220;If no correction, it&#8217;s not my trade.&#8221; We will sit on our hands if price simply melts down without offering an entry.</li>



<li><strong>Target:</strong> Once the correction completes, we anticipate a continuation of the down move.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-25_13-36-17_d8c85-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3923" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-25_13-36-17_d8c85-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-25_13-36-17_d8c85-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-25_13-36-17_d8c85-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-25_13-36-17_d8c85-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-25_13-36-17_d8c85-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my&nbsp;<strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark>Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">EURUSD – Bullish Bias (Correction then Expansion)</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Euro has shifted structure, aligning with the weakness we are seeing in the Dollar Index. The bias has flipped to bullish, but we need a better entry price before committing to the trade.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> Price has broken structure to the upside, confirming bullish momentum. However, we are currently &#8220;looking for a correction downside first.&#8221;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Outlook:</strong></p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>The Trade:</strong> We are waiting for price to retrace into the bullish Fair Value Gaps (green zones) marked below. This &#8220;dip&#8221; will provide the discount entry we need.</li>



<li><strong>The Projection:</strong> Once the correction finishes, we expect an impulsive move up.</li>



<li><strong>Caution:</strong> Be aware that &#8220;after the up move,&#8221; we should anticipate a &#8220;bigger corrective structure,&#8221; so take profits into strength rather than holding indefinitely.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-25_13-36-55_f1c9b-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3924" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-25_13-36-55_f1c9b-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-25_13-36-55_f1c9b-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-25_13-36-55_f1c9b-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-25_13-36-55_f1c9b-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-25_13-36-55_f1c9b-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my&nbsp;<strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark>Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">GBPUSD – Bullish Bias (Awaiting Discount)</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Similar to the Euro, the British Pound has broken out, but chasing the current high is not the plan. Patience is required to catch the next leg higher.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> The market has left behind clear bullish inefficiencies (FVGs) during the recent rally. We are looking for price to respect these zones on a pullback.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Outlook:</strong></p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>The Trade:</strong> The plan is to wait for the &#8220;correction downside first.&#8221; We are looking for price to tap into the discount arrays (green FVG) to fuel the next move up.</li>



<li><strong>The Projection:</strong> We anticipate a rally from these lower levels.</li>



<li><strong>Long-term View:</strong> Just like EURUSD, once this next leg up is complete, be prepared for a shift in behavior as we &#8220;look for a bigger corrective structure&#8221; to develop.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-25_13-39-40_b91a2-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3925" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-25_13-39-40_b91a2-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-25_13-39-40_b91a2-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-25_13-39-40_b91a2-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-25_13-39-40_b91a2-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-25_13-39-40_b91a2-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my&nbsp;<strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark>Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Gold (XAUUSD) – Bullish Bias (Continuous Momentum)</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Gold remains the standout performer, showing no signs of slowing down.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> The trend is clear: <strong>Up.</strong> The chart shows a clean staircase of higher highs and higher lows, leaving behind multiple unmitigated bullish FVGs. <strong>Outlook:</strong></p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>We are expecting a &#8220;continuous up move.&#8221;</li>



<li>Any intraday dips into immediate support levels are potential buy opportunities. We are ignoring sell signals and focusing purely on trend continuation.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-25_13-40-23_cef4c-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3926" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-25_13-40-23_cef4c-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-25_13-40-23_cef4c-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-25_13-40-23_cef4c-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-25_13-40-23_cef4c-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-25_13-40-23_cef4c-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my&nbsp;<strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark>Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500 (SPX500) – Bullish Bias (ATH inbound)</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The equity market is showing strength, aligning with the &#8220;risk-on&#8221; flows suggested by a weaker Dollar.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> Price is consolidating slightly but maintaining bullish structure. <strong>Outlook:</strong></p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>We are expecting the index to break the <strong>All-Time High (ATH)</strong> again.</li>



<li>Bullish Order Blocks and FVGs below current price are key areas to watch for support if we get a minor pullback early in the week.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSDT_2026-01-25_13-38-35_848d3-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3927" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSDT_2026-01-25_13-38-35_848d3-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSDT_2026-01-25_13-38-35_848d3-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSDT_2026-01-25_13-38-35_848d3-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSDT_2026-01-25_13-38-35_848d3-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSDT_2026-01-25_13-38-35_848d3-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my&nbsp;<strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark>Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) – Bearish Bias (The Divergence)</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While the rest of the market seems to be betting against the Dollar, Bitcoin is showing weakness.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> Unlike the equities market, BTC has broken lower and left behind bearish inefficiencies (Red FVGs). <strong>Outlook:</strong></p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>We are looking for a <strong>down move</strong>.</li>



<li>Price is struggling to reclaim higher levels, and the weight of the overhead supply is likely to push price lower toward liquidity pools below. This suggests a potential decoupling from the SPX500 correlation this week.</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Dollar is finally correcting, opening up long opportunities on <strong>EURUSD</strong> and <strong>GBPUSD</strong>—but patience is key. We are waiting for pullbacks before pulling the trigger. Meanwhile, <strong>Gold</strong> and <strong>SPX500</strong> look ready to crush new highs, while <strong>Bitcoin</strong> flashes a warning sign.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>



<div class="wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained">
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>DISCLAIMER: FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The information, analysis, and charts presented in this “Weekly Market Outlook” are strictly for&nbsp;<strong>educational and informational purposes only</strong>. They do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a signal to buy or sell any financial instrument.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Risk Warning:</strong>&nbsp;Trading Forex, Commodities, Indices, and other financial instruments involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you as well as for you. You should be aware of all the risks associated with financial market trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>No Liability:</strong>&nbsp;The author accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
</div>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Weekly Market Outlook: January 19 – 23 (DXY, Majors, Gold, BTC, and SPX500)</title>
		<link>https://mustafijur.com/weekly-market-outlook-january-19-23-dxy-majors-gold-btc-and-spx500/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mustafijur]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Jan 2026 07:10:24 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Weekly Outlook]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mustafijur.com/?p=3906</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[This week&#8217;s technical outlook focuses on the continued strength of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the resulting opportunities in major currency pairs. Our analysis utilizes 4-hour timeframes, focusing on Fair Value Gaps (FVG) and liquidity pools to identify high-probability trade setups. The general theme for the week ahead is waiting for price corrections into [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This week&#8217;s technical outlook focuses on the continued strength of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the resulting opportunities in major currency pairs. Our analysis utilizes 4-hour timeframes, focusing on Fair Value Gaps (FVG) and liquidity pools to identify high-probability trade setups.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The general theme for the week ahead is waiting for price corrections into &#8220;premium&#8221; or &#8220;discount&#8221; zones before rejoining the prevailing trends.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-18_12-47-27_3eabd-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3907" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-18_12-47-27_3eabd-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-18_12-47-27_3eabd-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-18_12-47-27_3eabd-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-18_12-47-27_3eabd-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-18_12-47-27_3eabd-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US Dollar Index (DXY) – Bullish Bias</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The DXY has established a strong bullish trend. Currently, we are seeing a minor pullback from recent highs.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> We are not looking to chase price at these highs. Instead, we are patiently waiting for a downward correction. Our area of interest lies below current price action, where several unmitigated bullish Fair Value Gaps (green zones) reside.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Outlook:</strong> We anticipate price will dip into these discount zones to collect orders. Once price taps into these FVGs, we expect bullish momentum to resume, driving the index upward toward new highs.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-18_12-47-36_08a28-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3908" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-18_12-47-36_08a28-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-18_12-47-36_08a28-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-18_12-47-36_08a28-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-18_12-47-36_08a28-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-18_12-47-36_08a28-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">EURUSD – Bearish Bias</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Inverse to the DXY, the Euro shows a clear bearish structure. The pair has recently moved away from its lows and is currently in a retracement phase.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> The current upward movement is viewed as a correction within a larger downtrend. We are monitoring bearish Fair Value Gaps (red zones) located above the current price located in premium pricing areas.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Outlook:</strong> We are looking for price to rally into these bearish FVGs. We expect sellers to step in at these levels, capping the correction and pushing the pair down to test previous lows and potentially lower liquidity objectives.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-18_12-47-43_9c4b4-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3909" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-18_12-47-43_9c4b4-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-18_12-47-43_9c4b4-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-18_12-47-43_9c4b4-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-18_12-47-43_9c4b4-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-18_12-47-43_9c4b4-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">GBPUSD – Bearish Bias (Post-Liquidity Sweep)</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">GBPUSD presents a similar bearish picture to EURUSD but with a key structural development already in play.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> The pair has recently swept a significant sell-side liquidity zone (breaking previous structural lows). Often, a liquidity sweep is followed by a counter-trend retracement before the primary trend resumes.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Outlook:</strong> Following this break of the bottom, we are now looking for an upward correction. Our target for this retracement is the bearish FVG located above. Once price mitigates this area, we anticipate a continuation of the downward move.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/AUDUSD_2026-01-18_12-48-10_abf6f-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3910" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/AUDUSD_2026-01-18_12-48-10_abf6f-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/AUDUSD_2026-01-18_12-48-10_abf6f-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/AUDUSD_2026-01-18_12-48-10_abf6f-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/AUDUSD_2026-01-18_12-48-10_abf6f-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/AUDUSD_2026-01-18_12-48-10_abf6f-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">AUDUSD – Bearish Bias (Targeting Major Liquidity)</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Australian Dollar remains under heavy selling pressure. The chart highlights a significant area of interest below the current price action.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> Price is approaching a major &#8220;FVG and liquidity zone&#8221; to the downside. The immediate plan involves waiting for the market to attack these lows.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Outlook:</strong> We are looking for price to break the current bottom and tap into the large liquidity/FVG zone marked on the chart. Similar to GBPUSD, once this sell-side liquidity is taken, we may see a temporary upward correction into premium zones before the bearish trend looks to continue further.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/USDJPY_2026-01-18_12-48-17_9ea01-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3911" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/USDJPY_2026-01-18_12-48-17_9ea01-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/USDJPY_2026-01-18_12-48-17_9ea01-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/USDJPY_2026-01-18_12-48-17_9ea01-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/USDJPY_2026-01-18_12-48-17_9ea01-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/USDJPY_2026-01-18_12-48-17_9ea01-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">USDJPY – Bullish Bias (Flag Continuation)</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The USDJPY pair continues to show strength, aligning with our overall bullish outlook on the Dollar Index. The market structure remains clearly defined by higher highs and higher lows.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> Price has formed a &#8220;regular flag&#8221; pattern, which is a classic continuation setup in a trending market. We are currently observing a corrective phase that is consolidating recent gains.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Outlook:</strong> We are waiting for this consolidation to complete. The expectation is for price to break out of this flag structure and initiate another leg up. We are looking for price to respect the bullish order flow and target higher liquidity levels as the trend resumes.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSDT_2026-01-18_12-48-29_56e77-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3912" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSDT_2026-01-18_12-48-29_56e77-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSDT_2026-01-18_12-48-29_56e77-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSDT_2026-01-18_12-48-29_56e77-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSDT_2026-01-18_12-48-29_56e77-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/BTCUSDT_2026-01-18_12-48-29_56e77-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) – Bullish Bias (Breaker Block Test)</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend. The chart highlights a key structural area—a &#8220;Breaker Block&#8221;—that is expected to act as dynamic support.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> We have identified a significant Breaker Block zone that aligns with bullish Fair Value Gaps (FVG). Price is currently reacting around this area.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Outlook:</strong> There are two high-probability scenarios we are monitoring:</p>



<ol start="1" class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Immediate Continuation:</strong> Price finds sufficient demand at the current level and rallies straight up.</li>



<li><strong>Deep Correction:</strong> Price dips slightly lower to fully test the bottom of the Breaker Block/FVG zone before rejecting and moving higher. In either case, the bias remains strictly bullish.</li>
</ol>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-18_12-48-37_92608-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3913" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-18_12-48-37_92608-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-18_12-48-37_92608-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-18_12-48-37_92608-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-18_12-48-37_92608-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-18_12-48-37_92608-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Gold (XAUUSD) – Bullish Bias (Trend Following)</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Gold is exhibiting a powerful bullish trend. The strategy here is simple: trend following. We are avoiding counter-trend short positions and focusing solely on joining the upward momentum.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> The market has left behind several unmitigated bullish FVGs (green zones) during its ascent. These zones represent areas where institutional buying pressure was strong.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Outlook:</strong> We are looking for &#8220;up moves only.&#8221; Any retracement into the nearest bullish FVG should be viewed as a potential buying opportunity. We anticipate the price will continue to respect these discount arrays and push toward new highs.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-18_12-48-44_78f5a-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3914" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-18_12-48-44_78f5a-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-18_12-48-44_78f5a-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-18_12-48-44_78f5a-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-18_12-48-44_78f5a-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-18_12-48-44_78f5a-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500 (SPX500) – Bullish Bias</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Similar to Gold, the S&amp;P 500 index is in a confirmed uptrend. The price action suggests that bulls are fully in control, and we are looking to align ourselves with this dominant force.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Setup:</strong> Price has consistently broken resistance levels and created new support zones. The chart shows multiple bullish FVGs below the current price, offering a &#8220;safety net&#8221; for any pullbacks.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Outlook:</strong> Our stance is to &#8220;follow the trend.&#8221; We are waiting for a minor correction or a pause in price action to offer an entry. Once the correction concludes, we expect the index to expand higher, continuing its bullish trajectory.<br><br>In summary, the market outlook for the week of <strong>January 19 – 23</strong> is defined by a cohesive theme of <strong>USD strength</strong> and trend continuation across equities and crypto. We are observing a clear divergence where the DXY is poised to expand higher after a discount retracement, putting pressure on major pairs like EURUSD and GBPUSD. Meanwhile, Gold, Bitcoin, and the S&amp;P 500 remain in strong structural uptrends, where our primary focus is buying dips at key support levels such as Breaker Blocks and Fair Value Gaps. As always, patience is key—wait for price to come to your specific levels of interest to ensure you are executing with the highest probability.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>



<div class="wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained">
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>DISCLAIMER: FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The information, analysis, and charts presented in this “Weekly Market Outlook” are strictly for&nbsp;<strong>educational and informational purposes only</strong>. They do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a signal to buy or sell any financial instrument.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Risk Warning:</strong>&nbsp;Trading Forex, Commodities, Indices, and other financial instruments involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you as well as for you. You should be aware of all the risks associated with financial market trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>No Liability:</strong>&nbsp;The author accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk.</p>
</div>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Weekly Market Outlook: January 12 – 16 (DXY, Majors, Gold, and SPX500 Analysis)</title>
		<link>https://mustafijur.com/weekly-market-outlook-january-12-16-dxy-majors-gold-and-spx500-analysis/</link>
					<comments>https://mustafijur.com/weekly-market-outlook-january-12-16-dxy-majors-gold-and-spx500-analysis/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mustafijur]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Jan 2026 08:22:14 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Weekly Outlook]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mustafijur.com/?p=3847</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Welcome to my first official Weekly Market Outlook. As we close the book on the first trading week of 2026, the market narrative is beginning to sharpen. We are seeing classic structural alignments across the major pairs that suggest volatility is about to pick up. My analysis for the week ahead is grounded in Elliott [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Welcome to my first official Weekly Market Outlook. As we close the book on the first trading week of 2026, the market narrative is beginning to sharpen. We are seeing classic structural alignments across the major pairs that suggest volatility is about to pick up.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">My analysis for the week ahead is grounded in <strong>Elliott Wave Structure</strong> combined with <strong>Smart Money Concepts (SMC)</strong>. We aren&#8217;t guessing; we are waiting for the market to show its hand. The dominant theme for this week is a potential <strong>resurgence of the US Dollar (DXY)</strong>. We are tracking clear corrective structures that are maturing, signaling that the next impulsive legs are imminent.<br></p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2560" height="1517" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-11_14-39-13_d558a-scaled.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3862" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-11_14-39-13_d558a-scaled.png 2560w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-11_14-39-13_d558a-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-11_14-39-13_d558a-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-11_14-39-13_d558a-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-11_14-39-13_d558a-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DXY_2026-01-11_14-39-13_d558a-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>1. US Dollar Index (DXY) – The Commander</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Bias:</strong> <strong>Bullish</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Dollar Index is providing the roadmap for the entire Forex market this week. Structurally, we have identified a clean <strong>Running Flat</strong> correction. In Wave Analysis, this is a powerful continuation pattern that suggests strong underlying momentum—buyers are stepping in early, preventing price from correcting deeply.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>The Setup:</strong> We are currently finishing the internal substructure of this correction.</li>



<li><strong>The Plan:</strong> We anticipate a short-term pullback (correction downside) to induce early sellers and build liquidity. Once this correction completes, we expect an impulsive breakout to the upside.</li>



<li><strong>Target:</strong> The immediate objective is to clear the external liquidity (Highs) at <strong>98.80+</strong>.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-11_14-40-24_15fab-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3864" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-11_14-40-24_15fab-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-11_14-40-24_15fab-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-11_14-40-24_15fab-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-11_14-40-24_15fab-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/EURUSD_2026-01-11_14-40-24_15fab-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>2. EURUSD – The Mirror Image</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Bias:</strong> <strong>Bearish</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">As expected, the Euro is mirroring the DXY’s strength with weakness. The pair has broken structure to the downside and is currently heavy. However, we do not chase price.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>The Setup:</strong> The market is poised for a <strong>corrective rally</strong> (pullback) to the upside. This relief rally is necessary to rebalance the price action and offer a &#8220;Premium&#8221; entry price.</li>



<li><strong>The Plan:</strong> We are stalking this correction into a supply zone. Once the rally exhausts, we will look for confirmation to short the next leg down.</li>



<li><strong>Target:</strong> The primary draw on liquidity is the previous structural low (marked on chart). We expect the market to sweep this level.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-11_14-40-56_e1338-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3865" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-11_14-40-56_e1338-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-11_14-40-56_e1338-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-11_14-40-56_e1338-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-11_14-40-56_e1338-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GBPUSD_2026-01-11_14-40-56_e1338-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>3. GBPUSD (Cable) – The Daily Defense</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Bias:</strong> <strong>Bearish</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Cable is presenting a very similar structure to the Euro but with a specific area of interest. We have identified a <strong>Daily Order Block (OB)</strong> that has caused a reaction, but the bearish pressure remains dominant.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>The Setup:</strong> Price is currently reacting off the lows, and we are looking for a deeper correction upward into the equilibrium or premium zones.</li>



<li><strong>The Plan:</strong> We are patient. We need to see the price correct slowly (corrective nature) before the sellers regain control.</li>



<li><strong>Target:</strong> Just like EURUSD, we are anticipating &#8220;another move down&#8221; to attack the weak lows once the correction terminates.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/NZDUSD_2026-01-11_14-41-30_4feed-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3866" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/NZDUSD_2026-01-11_14-41-30_4feed-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/NZDUSD_2026-01-11_14-41-30_4feed-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/NZDUSD_2026-01-11_14-41-30_4feed-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/NZDUSD_2026-01-11_14-41-30_4feed-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/NZDUSD_2026-01-11_14-41-30_4feed-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>4. NZDUSD – The Premium Trap</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Bias:</strong> <strong>Bearish</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Similar to the Cable (GBPUSD), the Kiwi Dollar is currently in a downtrend, but we are not chasing the lows. The market has left a clean <strong>Order Block (OB) Zone</strong> in the premium pricing area.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>The Setup:</strong> We are waiting for price to correct upward into this OB Zone. This &#8220;inducement&#8221; rally attracts early buyers who think the trend is reversing.</li>



<li><strong>The Plan:</strong> Watch for rejection inside the OB box. We need to see a clear reaction before committing to the short side.</li>



<li><strong>Target:</strong> Once the correction terminates, we anticipate an impulsive move down to clear the liquidity below <strong>0.5640</strong>.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XTIUSD_2026-01-11_14-43-19_9fb4a-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3867" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XTIUSD_2026-01-11_14-43-19_9fb4a-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XTIUSD_2026-01-11_14-43-19_9fb4a-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XTIUSD_2026-01-11_14-43-19_9fb4a-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XTIUSD_2026-01-11_14-43-19_9fb4a-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XTIUSD_2026-01-11_14-43-19_9fb4a-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>5. WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) – The Structure Test</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Bias:</strong> <strong>Bearish (Conditional)</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Oil is presenting a classic <strong>Regular Flat</strong> correction on the 4H timeframe. This pattern typically signals a continuation of the trend, but patience is required here as the market decides its next leg.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>The Setup:</strong> Price is currently hovering near the top of the corrective structure.</li>



<li><strong>The Plan (The Trigger):</strong> We drop to the Lower Timeframe (LTF).
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Scenario A:</strong> If we see a confirmed <strong>Break of Structure (BOS)</strong> and a 3-wave corrective pullback, we sell the drop.</li>



<li><strong>Scenario B:</strong> If price refuses to break structure and holds above the highs, the bearish bias is invalidated, and we stand aside.</li>
</ul>
</li>



<li><strong>Target:</strong> If confirmed, the target is a swift move to the downside to complete the larger wave cycle.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-11_14-42-46_9af05-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3868" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-11_14-42-46_9af05-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-11_14-42-46_9af05-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-11_14-42-46_9af05-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-11_14-42-46_9af05-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/SPX500_2026-01-11_14-42-46_9af05-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>6. S&amp;P 500 (SPX500) – Chasing History</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Bias:</strong> <strong>Bullish</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The US Indices remain in a relentless structural uptrend. There is zero evidence of a reversal, so we continue to trade with the momentum.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>The Setup:</strong> We are forecasting a <strong>small, shallow correction</strong>. In strong trending markets, deep pullbacks often don&#8217;t happen because institutional demand is too high.</li>



<li><strong>The Plan:</strong> Any short-term dip is a buying opportunity. We are looking for a &#8220;micro-correction&#8221; to join the trend.</li>



<li><strong>Target:</strong> <strong>All-Time Highs.</strong> The objective is simply blue sky breakout.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="607" src="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-11_14-42-10_07ecd-1024x607.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3869" srcset="https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-11_14-42-10_07ecd-1024x607.png 1024w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-11_14-42-10_07ecd-300x178.png 300w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-11_14-42-10_07ecd-768x455.png 768w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-11_14-42-10_07ecd-1536x910.png 1536w, https://mustafijur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XAUUSD_2026-01-11_14-42-10_07ecd-2048x1214.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<p class="has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph"><em>Chart Analysis performed on TradingView/Deriv. You can find my full charting setup in my <strong><a href="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" data-type="link" data-id="https://mustafijur.com/trading-toolkit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color">Toolkit</mark></a></strong></em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>7. Gold (XAUUSD) – The 4H Mitigation</strong></h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Bias:</strong> <strong>Bullish</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Gold is ignoring the broader Dollar strength and maintaining its own bullish structure. We have identified a pristine <strong>4H Order Block</strong> that aligns with our wave count.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>The Setup:</strong> We are patiently waiting for an <strong>ABC Correction</strong> to complete. Price needs to come down to mitigate the 4H Order Block to fuel the next move.</li>



<li><strong>The Plan:</strong> We will set our alerts at the top of the OB. We want to see price tap this zone and reject it.</li>



<li><strong>Target:</strong> A break of the previous high (<strong>Liquidity Sweep</strong>). We expect Gold to attack the highs once more after this refueling stop.</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>



<div class="wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained">
<p class="has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph"><strong>DISCLAIMER: FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The information, analysis, and charts presented in this &#8220;Weekly Market Outlook&#8221; are strictly for <strong>educational and informational purposes only</strong>. They do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a signal to buy or sell any financial instrument.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Risk Warning:</strong> Trading Forex, Commodities, Indices, and other financial instruments involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you as well as for you. You should be aware of all the risks associated with financial market trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>No Liability:</strong> The author accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk.</p>
</div>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://mustafijur.com/weekly-market-outlook-january-12-16-dxy-majors-gold-and-spx500-analysis/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
			</item>
	</channel>
</rss>

<!--
Performance optimized by W3 Total Cache. Learn more: https://www.boldgrid.com/w3-total-cache/?utm_source=w3tc&utm_medium=footer_comment&utm_campaign=free_plugin

Page Caching using Disk: Enhanced 

Served from: mustafijur.com @ 2026-06-04 17:50:48 by W3 Total Cache
-->